Illinois Section Legislative Update from GSA

"…and the lights all went out in Massachusetts…"

With apologies to the Bee Gees, the lyrics to their song from a few decades back could easily have been intoned by Democrats on all levels as a result of the special election to fill the United States Senate seat vacated by the death of Sen. Ted. Kennedy and captured by the Republican Party. Regardless of whether the Democratic loss was due to a bad candidate or unpopular policies, the result has Republicans emboldened and Democrats scurrying on both the national and state levels. Those results in Massachusetts could have major repercussions in Illinois as the General Assembly begins a new legislative session on February 3.

Illinois Democrats will be trying hard to avoid a replay of 1994 when the political stars were aligned just about the same way as they are in 2010. Then, newly elected President Bill Clinton’s botched push for health care reform caused support for Democratic candidates in that off-year election to plummet. The result was an election debacle in Illinois that cost Democrats every major statewide office, and a 13 seat loss and control of the House. With Democrats poised to control the redistricting machinery for the first time ever in 2011 if they maintain control of the General Assembly and the Governor’s office, it’s not a great year to crash and burn at the polls.

Republicans, on the other hand, also remember 1994 and can be expected to do anything that will enhance their fortunes both for their candidate for Governor and for legislative candidates in advance of the November elections. Desperately needing to capture one of the three elements that comprise the redistricting triumvirate, Republicans will attempt to maintain the spirit of the “message of Massachusetts” by forcing legislative Democrats alone to solve the state’s fiscal mess and provide adequate revenues to fund programs. They would love nothing more than to be able to use the bludgeon of a Democratic tax increase to “bring home the bacon” in November.
In fact, because 2011 is a redistricting year nationally where all congressional districts throughout the United States will be redrawn, so expect more of a battle royal than cooperation in Washington, D.C. when addressing issues of controversy. Despite President Obama’s plea for a truce Republicans hope that an anti-Democratic surge occurs that trickles down to state and local levels in November. Power is at stake and the (political) game is afoot.

February 2 and beyond

Strategies for a successful November for each political party won’t be determined until after the ink has dried on this week’s primary election. There will be massive pressure on the candidates from the top two ballot races to be credible and make the case for themselves and to help create additional coattails for other candidates down the ballot. Since straight party voting in the general election no longer exists in Illinois, voters have to select candidates individually as they move down the ballot. In 1994 Republican Governor Jim Edgar was on the re-election ballot and was renominated easily. Democrats nominated a weak candidate (Dawn Clark Netsch) to oppose him and offered no other strong statewide candidates to move voters to the Democratic column. As Tuesday’s winning candidates head toward November there will be one appreciable difference in 2010. Electoral heavyweights Attorney General Lisa Madigan and Secretary of State Jesse White will be nominated by Democrats and may serve as “momentum breakers” as voters peruse the ballot if their top of the ticket falters.

With just hours left before primary election ballots are cast it appears that the fields have narrowed in the top of the ticket races:

According to published polls Republican Congressman Mark Kirk and Democratic State Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias appear to be headed for nomination in the U.S. Senate race. Expect millions to be spent on both sides to retain or capture President Obama’s seat in the fall. Both may have to overcome negatives that could impact retention of their base voters. Long shot Democratic Senate candidate David Hoffman, former Chicago Inspector General, has been receiving many newspaper endorsements but has a minute war chest. Should he somehow upset Giannoulias it could make for an interesting race in the fall and could thwart the GOP plan to win that seat.

In the gubernatorial primary election marathon it’s a race to the wire among five candidates:

Governor Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes have been slugging it out for months and, according to polls taken last week, Hynes has closed a 20 point gap and the race right now is a classified as a dead heat. Polling shows that Quinn’s approval ratings appear to have dropped like a rock since the recent prisoner release program fiasco. Trends and newspaper endorsements have been pointing Hynes’ way, but will Democratic voters on Tuesday do the same?

On the Republican side there appears to be a tight, three way battle for the nomination between former Attorney General Jim Ryan, State Senator Kirk Dillard and former state GOP Chairman Andy McKenna. Recent polls have shown each of the three in the top spot at various times. McKenna has skipped recent debates and has been chided by other candidates for doing so. He also has been chastised by the state GOP that he once chaired for doing an early poll on gubernatorial candidates and including himself, without receiving permission from the party executive board. Dillard, endorsed by former Governor Jim Edgar, is receiving criticism for having allowed himself to be in a pro-Obama primary election commercial in 2008. Ryan has been under attack from other candidates for jumping into the race late after having been invisible since his 2002 defeat by Blagojevich. None of the three candidates has offered specifics on how they would put the state back in the black during their primary campaigns. Whoever emerges had better come up with something good and detailed because the public will be demanding that by November.

One year ago, Republicans were gleeful about running against Blagojevich, Burris and Stroger. That glee has been dampened by Blagojevich’s removal from office, Burris’ decision not to seek election to the U.S. Senate seat he was appointed to, and Cook County Board President Todd Stroger’s presumed defeat in Tuesday’s primary election. Stroger enacted a hugely unpopular 1% sales tax increase in Cook County and has been incredibly inept in his handling of his office. As his approval rating plummeted to just over 10%, Republicans were licking their chops, dreaming of capturing an office that they hadn’t held since the 1960’s and cutting Democratic vote margins Cook County. Winning or even being competitive in that race in the fall would be a certain game changer. But, Democratic primary voters in Cook County will apparently end that fantasy on Tuesday by dumping Stroger and nominating a reform candidate to replace him.

February 3 and beyond

As mentioned previously, the spring session of the General Assembly begins this week with major uncertainties and no answers in sight to the question of resolving the state’s $12.5 billion fiscal hole. Legislative leaders have targeted May 7 for adjournment … three full weeks early and a sign that not much else but the budget will be considered. Expect any proposals to spend new dollars or create new programs to be non-starters. But, with a perceived jittery electorate at home, will the legislature provide any new revenues or will they try once again to put together a budget using gimmicks and one-time fixes? Yes, but the number of creative fixes beyond sweeps and borrowing have greatly diminished … and the stimulus funds that helped last year will no longer be available.

Is it possible that they will continue last year’s scheme of passing a lump sum budget, washing their hands and telling the Governor to manage as best he can? Yes, but as in the last scenario it would mean that no steps would be taken to close the revenue shortfall.

Could they adopt a six-month budget and then wait until after the November election and determine the next steps based on who the winner of the gubernatorial contest is? Yes, especially if the winner in November is a candidate that has pledged cuts and no tax increases. It’s entirely conceivable that the legislature could approve a budget that gets the state through January and then forces that individual to face a harsh reality from the get-go.

Or, will the legislature use the shortened session to seriously address the ever worsening budget hole? Yes, but expect that it will not be easy, no matter how bad the picture looks. It will take a herculean effort from the “bottom up” to get the revenue stalemate broken. And remember, even if a tax increase is approved a few billion in cuts will be necessary. That’s not a pretty picture. In a system that likes to reward winners, they will be few and far between this year.

Bill Introductions

February 11 is the deadline date for the introduction of new legislation. It is expected that the number of bills introduced this year will be significantly less than in other years due to the fiscal crisis. However, because there are thousands of bills that were introduced last year that are currently inactive, it is very possible that any of those can be resurrected in order to accomplish an objective.

Government Strategy Associates
Illinois Section AWWA