And The Winner Is …. ?
After all the months political debates, charges, countercharges, and millions of dollars spent on television, radio and mail to convince voters that their opponents are worse than they are, Election 2010 will mercifully draw to a close in two days. By the end of the day on November 2 we should have some idea as to what the next two years, and possibly the next decade, hold politically and governmentally in the state of Illinois.
Democrats want to keep the governor’s office and majorities in the legislature so they can control state policy for the next two years, but also draw the reapportionment map that could put them in legislative control for the next ten. Republicans, on the other hand, feel emboldened and have put on a full frontal assault hoping to capture the governor’s office and possibly into a majority in the House. Either one would give them a 50/50 chance to control the reapportionment process that will begin in the spring.
With literally hours to go in the governor’s race it appears that the race is in a virtual dead heat. The number of targeted legislative races has expanded over the last few weeks so there are as many as 30 house districts being contested along with a dozen or so senate seats. The contested legislative seats are not focused in any one area so observers are going to have to wait for local returns from almost every area of the state. That should make for a long night on Tuesday as results trickle in.
The magic numbers for Tuesday night are 60 and 30. Those are the numbers that a party will need to control each of the legislative chambers. Sixty members of one party control the House and 30 control the Senate. Will Democrats be able to withstand the expected GOP/Tea Party onslaught? Have they been able to create a game plan that will offer different result than in 1994 when Republicans ran the table and captured every state office and control of the legislature? What happens if there is a 59-59 tie in the House? (Quick answer: Very ugly and gridlocked paralysis for two years.) Tune in Tuesday night …
For those who wish to follow the status of the legislative elections during Tuesday night, you might try www.capitalfaxblog. They may have compiled reports from the field that will provide the status of many legislative races, and all in one place.
Lame Ducks
Prior to every post-election season legislative session speculation abounds regarding major policy enactments by the General Assembly with lame duck legislators providing the necessary votes. In reality, such major policy decisions seldom occur.
Lame ducks can be classified in two categories: 1) Retired/defeated and committed, and 2) Retired/defeated and uncommitted.
The first category is comprised of legislators who feel a deep affinity for the legislative process and who feel that it is their responsibility to participate fully in the process until the final session gavel comes down. Most soon-to-be former legislators fit into this category. The second category is generally comprised of a few who may have retired because they looked upon the process as a burden or who are angry because they were “rejected” by their constituents in their reelection efforts. Their commitment to seeing the process through to the end is questionable.
Putting together the votes for a major initiative in the yearly veto session requires an extraordinary number of votes for it to be effective immediately. Generally, committed legislators who will not be returning, by and large, stay true to their philosophies and generally will not cross over and breach their principles. Additionally, some in this category may have plans to run for office again so it is even more unlikely that they will cast an odd vote. On the other hand, the few uncommitted legislators may not even be counted on to be in Springfield during post-election session days, let alone counting on a vote or convincing them to vote on a major piece of legislation.
What all this suggests is that putting together a successful roll call to enact a major initiative, such as a tax increase, is not an easy task. Can it happen? Surely. However, it’s never easy as the lack of such successful efforts in the past can attest.
Disorder in the Court?
One of the important results to watch on election night will be the effort to unseat Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride. Democrats currently hold and traditionally have held a 4-3 majority on the Illinois Supreme Court. In the past the four Democratic votes have come from the three Cook County justices along with the justice elected from southern Illinois. In the past ten years two upsets have occurred that skewed this formula. In 2004 a Republican, Lloyd Karmeier, was elected from the southern Illinois district and in 2000 Democrat Thomas Kilbride was elected from the normally Republican 3rd District that stretches from Will County to Rock Island. Illinois supreme court justices serve for ten years and then appear on a retention ballot. They must receive 60 percent approval to be retained. It’s Justice Kilbride’s turn at bat in 2010 and it’s been a battle royale.
Why? The simple answer is caps on malpractice awards. Twice in the last forty years the legislature has approved malpractice award caps and twice, most recently last February, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled those caps unconstitutional with a four-vote majority. Change one vote and the possibility of major policy change in Illinois becomes possible. Enter Kilbride and his retention effort. The pro-caps, anti-Kilbride groups are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to deny him retention and have been brutal in their representation of his record. Kilbride has countered by presenting testimonials from a bipartisan broad cross-section of prominent persons touting his record. Remember that judicial elections aren’t generally issue-oriented -- judicial candidates are forbidden to be specific on how they would rule on specific issues or cases so races become focused more on background, values and trust.
A possible GOP Supreme Court majority also puts them in a position to rule on the state legislative reapportionment case when it arrives there, as it always does, sometime in mid-to-late 2011. The results in the gubernatorial and legislative races will be the first step in the remap process. The Illinois Supreme Court is the last, final and most important step, especially since they could discard any map presented to it and rule for another. That map will determine the legislative politics in Illinois for the next ten years. So keep an eye on this race Tuesday night. The impact could significantly impact the Illinois governmental and political landscape for years.
Who’s Next?
One of the major and sometimes overriding factors that determine the nature of the General Assembly’s fiscal and policy decisions is the city of Chicago, and the actions of its legislative delegation are very much dictated by leadership philosophy and the perceived needs of the person sitting in the mayor’s chair. In 2011 there may be a void in the direction that the city delegation is given due to the announced retirement of Mayor Richard M. Daley. Not only has his early retirement announcement created a scramble for the legion of mayors-in-waiting who wish to succeed him, but it may also create a rudderless legislative delegation searching for direction at a time when the state and city both are struggling financially.
According to the 2011 election calendar, mayoral candidates must file their petitions no later than November 22. Even though candidates will have a week to withdraw, and some will, it will provide a good glimpse of the expected large number of individuals who want to try to grab for this possible once-in-a-generation ‘brass ring’. The non-partisan primary election is scheduled to be held on February 22. If no candidate receives 50 percent then the top two will face off on April 5. The winner will take office on May 16 … while the General Assembly session adjournment date is May 31, only two weeks later.
If there is a sure winner on February 22 then there probably would be some consultation and coordination between the current and incoming administrations and the Chicago delegation. With the large number of candidates expected to run, however, it is widely expected that April 5 will be the date that the next mayor is elected. Not much time will remain for the new administration to get its priorities in order and its delegation marching in sync.
The needs and desires of the City of Chicago are not always the preeminent factor in legislative deliberation and they don’t always get what they want. But, like it or not, they are a very large delegation and a factor, and sometimes a very large factor, in determining the direction of the state and whoever is mayor helps to set that direction. In 2011, however, it may be one big delegation in search of a leader.
Veto Session (And Other) Dates Reminder
The Senate will be meeting on November 4 for the purpose of considering additional borrowing. It is not a “special session” but rather a session that was “recessed” when the legislature left Springfield in May. Therefore, the subject matter is not limited but it is not expected that anything out of the ordinary will take place.
The legislature is scheduled to meet the week before (November 16, 17, 18) and the week after (November 29, 30 and December 1) Thanksgiving to conduct its annual veto session. The governor vetoed or amendatory vetoed very little so there is some possibility that the number of session days may be cut. Of course, it also leaves time to act on other issues that may be outstanding.
Also expect at least a short legislative session in January. A governor will be sworn in on Monday, January 10. The legislature will probably meet that day and the next, wrapping up the current session before the new General Assembly is sworn into office on January 12. The January session days could be significant because as of January 1, the number of votes necessary to pass a bill and have it effective immediately drops from a three-fifths (36 Senate/71 House) to a simple majority (30/60).
Monday, November 1, 2010
L
And The Winner Is …. ?
After all the months political debates, charges, countercharges, and millions of dollars spent on television, radio and mail to convince voters that their opponents are worse than they are, Election 2010 will mercifully draw to a close in two days. By the end of the day on November 2 we should have some idea as to what the next two years, and possibly the next decade, hold politically and governmentally in the state of Illinois.
Democrats want to keep the governor’s office and majorities in the legislature so they can control state policy for the next two years, but also draw the reapportionment map that could put them in legislative control for the next ten. Republicans, on the other hand, feel emboldened and have put on a full frontal assault hoping to capture the governor’s office and possibly into a majority in the House. Either one would give them a 50/50 chance to control the reapportionment process that will begin in the spring.
With literally hours to go in the governor’s race it appears that the race is in a virtual dead heat. The number of targeted legislative races has expanded over the last few weeks so there are as many as 30 house districts being contested along with a dozen or so senate seats. The contested legislative seats are not focused in any one area so observers are going to have to wait for local returns from almost every area of the state. That should make for a long night on Tuesday as results trickle in.
The magic numbers for Tuesday night are 60 and 30. Those are the numbers that a party will need to control each of the legislative chambers. Sixty members of one party control the House and 30 control the Senate. Will Democrats be able to withstand the expected GOP/Tea Party onslaught? Have they been able to create a game plan that will offer different result than in 1994 when Republicans ran the table and captured every state office and control of the legislature? What happens if there is a 59-59 tie in the House? (Quick answer: Very ugly and gridlocked paralysis for two years.) Tune in Tuesday night …
For those who wish to follow the status of the legislative elections during Tuesday night, you might try www.capitalfaxblog. They may have compiled reports from the field that will provide the status of many legislative races, and all in one place.
Lame Ducks
Prior to every post-election season legislative session speculation abounds regarding major policy enactments by the General Assembly with lame duck legislators providing the necessary votes. In reality, such major policy decisions seldom occur.
Lame ducks can be classified in two categories: 1) Retired/defeated and committed, and 2) Retired/defeated and uncommitted.
The first category is comprised of legislators who feel a deep affinity for the legislative process and who feel that it is their responsibility to participate fully in the process until the final session gavel comes down. Most soon-to-be former legislators fit into this category. The second category is generally comprised of a few who may have retired because they looked upon the process as a burden or who are angry because they were “rejected” by their constituents in their reelection efforts. Their commitment to seeing the process through to the end is questionable.
Putting together the votes for a major initiative in the yearly veto session requires an extraordinary number of votes for it to be effective immediately. Generally, committed legislators who will not be returning, by and large, stay true to their philosophies and generally will not cross over and breach their principles. Additionally, some in this category may have plans to run for office again so it is even more unlikely that they will cast an odd vote. On the other hand, the few uncommitted legislators may not even be counted on to be in Springfield during post-election session days, let alone counting on a vote or convincing them to vote on a major piece of legislation.
What all this suggests is that putting together a successful roll call to enact a major initiative, such as a tax increase, is not an easy task. Can it happen? Surely. However, it’s never easy as the lack of such successful efforts in the past can attest.
Disorder in the Court?
One of the important results to watch on election night will be the effort to unseat Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride. Democrats currently hold and traditionally have held a 4-3 majority on the Illinois Supreme Court. In the past the four Democratic votes have come from the three Cook County justices along with the justice elected from southern Illinois. In the past ten years two upsets have occurred that skewed this formula. In 2004 a Republican, Lloyd Karmeier, was elected from the southern Illinois district and in 2000 Democrat Thomas Kilbride was elected from the normally Republican 3rd District that stretches from Will County to Rock Island. Illinois supreme court justices serve for ten years and then appear on a retention ballot. They must receive 60 percent approval to be retained. It’s Justice Kilbride’s turn at bat in 2010 and it’s been a battle royale.
Why? The simple answer is caps on malpractice awards. Twice in the last forty years the legislature has approved malpractice award caps and twice, most recently last February, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled those caps unconstitutional with a four-vote majority. Change one vote and the possibility of major policy change in Illinois becomes possible. Enter Kilbride and his retention effort. The pro-caps, anti-Kilbride groups are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to deny him retention and have been brutal in their representation of his record. Kilbride has countered by presenting testimonials from a bipartisan broad cross-section of prominent persons touting his record. Remember that judicial elections aren’t generally issue-oriented -- judicial candidates are forbidden to be specific on how they would rule on specific issues or cases so races become focused more on background, values and trust.
A possible GOP Supreme Court majority also puts them in a position to rule on the state legislative reapportionment case when it arrives there, as it always does, sometime in mid-to-late 2011. The results in the gubernatorial and legislative races will be the first step in the remap process. The Illinois Supreme Court is the last, final and most important step, especially since they could discard any map presented to it and rule for another. That map will determine the legislative politics in Illinois for the next ten years. So keep an eye on this race Tuesday night. The impact could significantly impact the Illinois governmental and political landscape for years.
Who’s Next?
One of the major and sometimes overriding factors that determine the nature of the General Assembly’s fiscal and policy decisions is the city of Chicago, and the actions of its legislative delegation are very much dictated by leadership philosophy and the perceived needs of the person sitting in the mayor’s chair. In 2011 there may be a void in the direction that the city delegation is given due to the announced retirement of Mayor Richard M. Daley. Not only has his early retirement announcement created a scramble for the legion of mayors-in-waiting who wish to succeed him, but it may also create a rudderless legislative delegation searching for direction at a time when the state and city both are struggling financially.
According to the 2011 election calendar, mayoral candidates must file their petitions no later than November 22. Even though candidates will have a week to withdraw, and some will, it will provide a good glimpse of the expected large number of individuals who want to try to grab for this possible once-in-a-generation ‘brass ring’. The non-partisan primary election is scheduled to be held on February 22. If no candidate receives 50 percent then the top two will face off on April 5. The winner will take office on May 16 … while the General Assembly session adjournment date is May 31, only two weeks later.
If there is a sure winner on February 22 then there probably would be some consultation and coordination between the current and incoming administrations and the Chicago delegation. With the large number of candidates expected to run, however, it is widely expected that April 5 will be the date that the next mayor is elected. Not much time will remain for the new administration to get its priorities in order and its delegation marching in sync.
The needs and desires of the City of Chicago are not always the preeminent factor in legislative deliberation and they don’t always get what they want. But, like it or not, they are a very large delegation and a factor, and sometimes a very large factor, in determining the direction of the state and whoever is mayor helps to set that direction. In 2011, however, it may be one big delegation in search of a leader.
Veto Session (And Other) Dates Reminder
The Senate will be meeting on November 4 for the purpose of considering additional borrowing. It is not a “special session” but rather a session that was “recessed” when the legislature left Springfield in May. Therefore, the subject matter is not limited but it is not expected that anything out of the ordinary will take place.
The legislature is scheduled to meet the week before (November 16, 17, 18) and the week after (November 29, 30 and December 1) Thanksgiving to conduct its annual veto session. The governor vetoed or amendatory vetoed very little so there is some possibility that the number of session days may be cut. Of course, it also leaves time to act on other issues that may be outstanding.
Also expect at least a short legislative session in January. A governor will be sworn in on Monday, January 10. The legislature will probably meet that day and the next, wrapping up the current session before the new General Assembly is sworn into office on January 12. The January session days could be significant because as of January 1, the number of votes necessary to pass a bill and have it effective immediately drops from a three-fifths (36 Senate/71 House) to a simple majority (30/60).
After all the months political debates, charges, countercharges, and millions of dollars spent on television, radio and mail to convince voters that their opponents are worse than they are, Election 2010 will mercifully draw to a close in two days. By the end of the day on November 2 we should have some idea as to what the next two years, and possibly the next decade, hold politically and governmentally in the state of Illinois.
Democrats want to keep the governor’s office and majorities in the legislature so they can control state policy for the next two years, but also draw the reapportionment map that could put them in legislative control for the next ten. Republicans, on the other hand, feel emboldened and have put on a full frontal assault hoping to capture the governor’s office and possibly into a majority in the House. Either one would give them a 50/50 chance to control the reapportionment process that will begin in the spring.
With literally hours to go in the governor’s race it appears that the race is in a virtual dead heat. The number of targeted legislative races has expanded over the last few weeks so there are as many as 30 house districts being contested along with a dozen or so senate seats. The contested legislative seats are not focused in any one area so observers are going to have to wait for local returns from almost every area of the state. That should make for a long night on Tuesday as results trickle in.
The magic numbers for Tuesday night are 60 and 30. Those are the numbers that a party will need to control each of the legislative chambers. Sixty members of one party control the House and 30 control the Senate. Will Democrats be able to withstand the expected GOP/Tea Party onslaught? Have they been able to create a game plan that will offer different result than in 1994 when Republicans ran the table and captured every state office and control of the legislature? What happens if there is a 59-59 tie in the House? (Quick answer: Very ugly and gridlocked paralysis for two years.) Tune in Tuesday night …
For those who wish to follow the status of the legislative elections during Tuesday night, you might try www.capitalfaxblog. They may have compiled reports from the field that will provide the status of many legislative races, and all in one place.
Lame Ducks
Prior to every post-election season legislative session speculation abounds regarding major policy enactments by the General Assembly with lame duck legislators providing the necessary votes. In reality, such major policy decisions seldom occur.
Lame ducks can be classified in two categories: 1) Retired/defeated and committed, and 2) Retired/defeated and uncommitted.
The first category is comprised of legislators who feel a deep affinity for the legislative process and who feel that it is their responsibility to participate fully in the process until the final session gavel comes down. Most soon-to-be former legislators fit into this category. The second category is generally comprised of a few who may have retired because they looked upon the process as a burden or who are angry because they were “rejected” by their constituents in their reelection efforts. Their commitment to seeing the process through to the end is questionable.
Putting together the votes for a major initiative in the yearly veto session requires an extraordinary number of votes for it to be effective immediately. Generally, committed legislators who will not be returning, by and large, stay true to their philosophies and generally will not cross over and breach their principles. Additionally, some in this category may have plans to run for office again so it is even more unlikely that they will cast an odd vote. On the other hand, the few uncommitted legislators may not even be counted on to be in Springfield during post-election session days, let alone counting on a vote or convincing them to vote on a major piece of legislation.
What all this suggests is that putting together a successful roll call to enact a major initiative, such as a tax increase, is not an easy task. Can it happen? Surely. However, it’s never easy as the lack of such successful efforts in the past can attest.
Disorder in the Court?
One of the important results to watch on election night will be the effort to unseat Supreme Court Justice Thomas Kilbride. Democrats currently hold and traditionally have held a 4-3 majority on the Illinois Supreme Court. In the past the four Democratic votes have come from the three Cook County justices along with the justice elected from southern Illinois. In the past ten years two upsets have occurred that skewed this formula. In 2004 a Republican, Lloyd Karmeier, was elected from the southern Illinois district and in 2000 Democrat Thomas Kilbride was elected from the normally Republican 3rd District that stretches from Will County to Rock Island. Illinois supreme court justices serve for ten years and then appear on a retention ballot. They must receive 60 percent approval to be retained. It’s Justice Kilbride’s turn at bat in 2010 and it’s been a battle royale.
Why? The simple answer is caps on malpractice awards. Twice in the last forty years the legislature has approved malpractice award caps and twice, most recently last February, the Illinois Supreme Court ruled those caps unconstitutional with a four-vote majority. Change one vote and the possibility of major policy change in Illinois becomes possible. Enter Kilbride and his retention effort. The pro-caps, anti-Kilbride groups are spending hundreds of thousands of dollars to deny him retention and have been brutal in their representation of his record. Kilbride has countered by presenting testimonials from a bipartisan broad cross-section of prominent persons touting his record. Remember that judicial elections aren’t generally issue-oriented -- judicial candidates are forbidden to be specific on how they would rule on specific issues or cases so races become focused more on background, values and trust.
A possible GOP Supreme Court majority also puts them in a position to rule on the state legislative reapportionment case when it arrives there, as it always does, sometime in mid-to-late 2011. The results in the gubernatorial and legislative races will be the first step in the remap process. The Illinois Supreme Court is the last, final and most important step, especially since they could discard any map presented to it and rule for another. That map will determine the legislative politics in Illinois for the next ten years. So keep an eye on this race Tuesday night. The impact could significantly impact the Illinois governmental and political landscape for years.
Who’s Next?
One of the major and sometimes overriding factors that determine the nature of the General Assembly’s fiscal and policy decisions is the city of Chicago, and the actions of its legislative delegation are very much dictated by leadership philosophy and the perceived needs of the person sitting in the mayor’s chair. In 2011 there may be a void in the direction that the city delegation is given due to the announced retirement of Mayor Richard M. Daley. Not only has his early retirement announcement created a scramble for the legion of mayors-in-waiting who wish to succeed him, but it may also create a rudderless legislative delegation searching for direction at a time when the state and city both are struggling financially.
According to the 2011 election calendar, mayoral candidates must file their petitions no later than November 22. Even though candidates will have a week to withdraw, and some will, it will provide a good glimpse of the expected large number of individuals who want to try to grab for this possible once-in-a-generation ‘brass ring’. The non-partisan primary election is scheduled to be held on February 22. If no candidate receives 50 percent then the top two will face off on April 5. The winner will take office on May 16 … while the General Assembly session adjournment date is May 31, only two weeks later.
If there is a sure winner on February 22 then there probably would be some consultation and coordination between the current and incoming administrations and the Chicago delegation. With the large number of candidates expected to run, however, it is widely expected that April 5 will be the date that the next mayor is elected. Not much time will remain for the new administration to get its priorities in order and its delegation marching in sync.
The needs and desires of the City of Chicago are not always the preeminent factor in legislative deliberation and they don’t always get what they want. But, like it or not, they are a very large delegation and a factor, and sometimes a very large factor, in determining the direction of the state and whoever is mayor helps to set that direction. In 2011, however, it may be one big delegation in search of a leader.
Veto Session (And Other) Dates Reminder
The Senate will be meeting on November 4 for the purpose of considering additional borrowing. It is not a “special session” but rather a session that was “recessed” when the legislature left Springfield in May. Therefore, the subject matter is not limited but it is not expected that anything out of the ordinary will take place.
The legislature is scheduled to meet the week before (November 16, 17, 18) and the week after (November 29, 30 and December 1) Thanksgiving to conduct its annual veto session. The governor vetoed or amendatory vetoed very little so there is some possibility that the number of session days may be cut. Of course, it also leaves time to act on other issues that may be outstanding.
Also expect at least a short legislative session in January. A governor will be sworn in on Monday, January 10. The legislature will probably meet that day and the next, wrapping up the current session before the new General Assembly is sworn into office on January 12. The January session days could be significant because as of January 1, the number of votes necessary to pass a bill and have it effective immediately drops from a three-fifths (36 Senate/71 House) to a simple majority (30/60).
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